The planning fallacy is only one of the manifestations of a pervasive optimistic bias. Most of us view the world as more benign than it really is, our own attributes as more favorable than they truly are, and the goals we adopt as more achievable than they are likely to be.We also tend to exaggerate our ability to forecast the future, which fosters optimistic overconfidence. In terms of its consequences for decisions, the optimistic bias may well be the most significant of the cognitive biases. Because optimistic bias can be both a blessing and a risk, you should be both happy and wary if you are temperamentally optimistic.
- Daniel Kahneman
As an optimist myself, I can understand the quote. Know thyself as the Oracle said, and whenever I feel optimistic I have to remind myself it probably won't be so easy after all.
ReplyDeleteI combine my optimism with a dollop of inherent laziness. While I'm confident of my goals and abilities, I don't work so hard as to achieve most of them so I'm hardly ever confronted with serious disappointment.
ReplyDeleteI added 20 or 30 words to my epic novel yesterday and got a haircut. All in all a successful day.
Daniel and Larry,
ReplyDeleteBeing naturally optimistic, I may have to carry this quote around as a reminder to rein in optimism.
I'm also lazy so that may play a role.
Michael