When Chou En-lai was asked his opinion of the French Revolution he reportedly said that it's too soon to tell.
As I grow older, I have greater appreciation for that response. There are events which some regard as successes or failures and my reaction is similar to Chou's. It's not that I'm immune from early pronouncements - certain news stories come to mind - but some subjects require a dose of sobriety because:
- We have very few facts.
- Many of the facts we have are not facts.
- The assumption that history shows that X or Y decision was a disaster assumes that the initial situation would have been frozen in amber while the other events played out. Let us remember: That. Does, Not. Happen.
Experience teaches humility. [It also dampens enthusiasm.]
In many cases, that's healthy.
2 comments:
I had a history professor who once said it takes at least 20 years to judge if a president was good or bad.
Daniel,
With many presidents that is certainly the case but I have full confidence that some are so poor that they permit an earlier judgment!
Michael
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