Generals who fail to comprehend needed changes are often accused of fighting the last war. The same concern applies, of course, in management. Consider the revolution currently underway in the publishing business with the reduction of the middlemen, the liberation of writers, and the search for a new marketing strategy. A natural question is whether similar changes will occur in other industries in the near future.
It is easy to discount the "last war" fears. A focus on the far horizon can cause you to trip over the rock that is near your foot. Schemes for new approaches can distract from attention to the basics. Choosing what not to do can be as important as choosing what to do.
That said, setting aside a limited amount of time to go beyond a cursory examination of "What if?" can be time well spent ... especially if some savvy competitor is doing so.
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