Remember "The Producers?"
It was the Mel Brooks film (and later a play) about a crooked producer and his timid accountant who decide to make a Broadway flop so they can keep the money from the backers and not have to pay back anyone. They search for the worst script possible and find a sure loser: "Springtime for Hitler."
Their guaranteed flop, of course, turns into a hit. They wind up in prison when it turns out that they sold far too many shares in the play.
This election year is "The Producers." Events that would have normally sunk a candidate have caused Donald Trump to soar. Hillary Clinton has already skated past scandals which, in the past, would have been fatal.
I have given up predicting election outcomes this year. This is too bizarre.
4 comments:
Who goes to jail at the end of this feature? :)
I agree, it's too unpredictable this year. For the first time in my living memory the GOP candidate isn't even pretending to bear the conservative banner.
The ground has shifted and the party of William F. Buckley is no longer lead by his heirs. What will they do now? Migrate to the democrats? Make peace with whatever Trumpism is? Try to form a third party? Or, and this only recently occurred to me, maybe it doesn't really matter what they do. Maybe their day in the sun has passed and they no longer hold the sway they used to. I for one will be quite sad and more than a little nervous about what might come after them.
Politics, what a strange reality show.
Daniel,
I apologize for the delayed response.
This is clearly a year when ideology has not mattered in the GOP race.
I doubt if the conservatives have lost their day in the sun. Most will probably drift toward Trump if only out of fear of losing the Supreme Court for decades. If Trump wins, they will still be a power in Congress.
My feeling is he will either win big or lose big.
It has been a very strange year.
Michael
Michael,
Remember when you blogged you didn't understand why so many people were voting for someone who was clearly unelectable?
Reminds me of the joke, "No one drives in NYC. The traffic is too bad."
-Bobbo
Bobbo,
I still have the question about electability. It is one thing to win a nomination with a minority of the votes cast and quite another to win the general election. Goldwater and McGovern won their nominations and had enthusiastic followers. [There was a Goldwater bumper sticker: "Gallup didn't ask me." Well, Gallup was right that year.]
That said, I confess that this is a strange year and Trump has been able to catch lightning in a bottle. He might be able to do it again in the general election. The likelihood of his doing so is less than someone like Rubio but he may pull it off.
I would bet, however, that Donald Trump doesn't make his business deals on "magic." He wants to see numbers and I feel the same way. When he starts getting a higher approval rating among Hispanics and women, then his electability will become serious.
Another advantage for him: Hillary Clinton also has high negatives; not as high as his, but high.
Michael
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