A prominent historian once told me he believes that if Hitler had not been able to forge an alliance with Italy he wouldn't have started World War II. He thinks that Hitler needed an ally in order to put to rest war fears within the German government; fears that would have been heightened if it appeared that Germany was going to tackle Britain and France on its own.
If his theory is true, that is an example of how one relatively small thing - especially given Italy's dismal performance in the war - can lead to major events.
History is filled with instances where decisions had far more import than one would suspect. Consider how the world would have been changed if President Franklin D. Roosevelt had not decided to replace Vice President Henry Wallace with Harry Truman.
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