Tuesday, March 08, 2011

The Winnowing Process

George F. Will summarizes the GOP presidential field:

Let us not mince words. There are at most five plausible Republican presidents on the horizon - Indiana Gov. Mitch Daniels, Mississippi Gov. Haley Barbour, former Utah governor and departing ambassador to China Jon Huntsman, former Massachusetts governor Romney and former Minnesota governor Tim Pawlenty.

2 Comments:

At 2:51 PM, Anonymous Cromagnum said...

Electability seems to be George's mantra

He forgot two factors that are not going away:
1) Tea Party
They will not hold their nose for the List of King George. Not in the primary, and not in the General. The libertarian elements would rather sit-out rather than vote (just like in 2008)
2) 16 Open Primaries
If CaptZero runs, then the Demts get to weigh in on 33% (799 of 2,422) of the Repubes convention delegates. They will likely pick a 'least favorite' or 'least likely to win.' Some evidence is out there of McCain getting the 2008 because of this. Wikipedia "Open primaries in the United States"

The other issue King George absentmindedly forgets is that if the economy turns sour, then the Rs could run a toadstool and an apple in a landslide victory.

Using some Game Theory, if CaptZero wins, its a net loss for the Progressives (including the King). It is more likely the Repubes will hold House and get super majority in Senate by 2014. Can you smell Impeachments and Constitutional Amendments?

 
At 5:58 PM, Blogger Michael Wade said...

Cromagnum,

Electability is pretty darned important if one is considering an election. Just as the job of an army is to win wars, the job of a political party is to elect candidates. Take that away and you don't have a party, you have an interest group. I believe that the strategy of backing the most electable, competent candidate who is closest to your political beliefs is a sound one.

 

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